Text compiled by Paula Dittrick, TMN CPC blogmaster, using Texas and U.S. government reports. Photo by Noel Zinn, TMN CPC member. Charts from Texas State Climatologist and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.
The average annual Texas surface temperature in 2036 is expected to be 3 °F warmer than the 1950-1999 average and 1.8 °F warmer than the 1991-2020 average, said an executive summary of a recently updated report entitled Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036.
The Texas A&M University Office of the Texas State Climatologist issued the latest update. Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon spoke to the January meeting of the Texas Master Naturalist Coastal Prairie Chapter.
The state climatologist report expects the number of 100-degree days at typical Texas weather stations will nearly double by 2036 compared with 2001-2020, with higher frequency of 100-degree days in urban areas. Besides Nielsen-Gammon, authors include S. Holman, A. Buley, S. Jorgensen, J. Escobedo, C. Ott, J. Dedrick, and A. Van Fleet.
Extreme monthly summertime temperature trends imply an increase of about 1 °F compared with the 1950-1999 average, the report said.
Winter weather, which is relatively rare across much of Texas, also is changing. “The frequency of extreme winter weather ought to decrease in Texas because the existence of winter weather is dependent on temperatures being cold enough to support winter weather,” the state climatologist’s report said.
As the climate warms, the likelihood of winter weather decreases. Both extreme cold and snowfall either become less frequent or are expected to do so. Widespread snowfall events in Texas such as the one that took place in February 2021 are extremely rare, the climatologist’s report said.
In a separate national report about extreme weather, the United States experienced 20 weather/climate disaster events during 2021, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) said in an updated report entitled U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters.
The 1980–2021 annual average is 7.4 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2017–2021) is 17.2 events (Consumer Price Index-adjusted).
The 2021 U.S. extreme weather events included 1 drought event, 2 flooding events, 11 severe storm events, 4 tropical cyclone events, 1 wildfire event, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 688 people, the NCEI report said.